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“All Eyes on Jackson Hole!”
Issue #146

Hi There! I love when a simple conversation makes you pause and see things in a whole new way. The other day, I was checking out my groceries at one of my local supermarkets. My cart was stacked with whole foods, and the young cashier glanced at it, smiled, and dropped a gem. She said, “You know, Black Friday should really be about healthy foods. Imagine if instead of chasing electronics, we had massive sales on fresh organic fruits and veggies.”
I had to stop for a second because wow, that’s a perspective worth pondering. Can you imagine? Organic kale for twenty cents a bunch. A three-pound bag of Honeycrisp apples for a quarter. Wild-caught salmon for a dollar a pound. Tell me that wouldn’t be the best Black Friday ever!
Instead of battling crowds for flat screens and high fashion, people could be lining up for high-quality, ethically sourced food. Think of the ripple effects. Healthier families, stronger demand for sustainable farming, less food waste, and more support for local growers and small food businesses. A holiday sale that actually invests in our well-being and community? That sounds revolutionary to me.
I laughed and told her, “Lucy, that’s one of the smartest things I’ve heard in a long time.” And it stuck with me. Maybe what we need isn’t another discounted gadget, but a shift in mindset that values the fuel that sustains us over the things that distract us.
So here’s a little food for thought as the holidays approaches: what if we started to treat our health and what we put on our plates as the best deal of all?
Alright, let’s dig in!
U.S. equities finished last week higher despite a busy economic calendar and some choppy trading sessions. The Federal Reserve remained in the spotlight as traders recalibrated expectations for a September rate cut after digesting both cooler consumer inflation data and a hotter wholesale inflation report. Treasury yields swung back and forth on the data and ended with little a change.
Internationally, markets rose across Europe and Asia, with Japan leading the pack as its major indexes notched fresh records on the back of strong economic data and upbeat corporate guidance. Commodities, however, faced headwinds. Crude oil drifted near two-month lows, gold lost ground, and the U.S. dollar weakened as investors leaned toward dovish monetary policy bets.
On the corporate side, UnitedHealth Group surged nearly 12% in its biggest one-day jump since 2020, thanks to what traders dubbed the “Buffett Bounce.” Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed it purchased 5 million shares, worth about $1.6 billion, giving the struggling health giant a much-needed boost.
U.S. Markets Recap (August 10 - August 16, 2025)
Equities:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average led large-cap gains, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed the broader market. After a muted Monday, the S&P 500 climbed last Tuesday following benign consumer inflation data, which reignited optimism that the Fed could resume rate cuts in September.
Midweek strength helped push indexes to new all-time highs, though last Thursday’s hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report forced investors to temper enthusiasm. Last Friday’s trading was shaped by weak consumer sentiment data and rising inflation expectations, which slightly trimmed last week’s rally but left stocks firmly positive.
The big movers:
Applied Materials (AMAT): Dropped sharply on weak guidance.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Choppy after reports it and AMD must share 15% of Chinese AI revenues with the U.S. government.
Fixed Income:
Treasuries ended nearly flat, but the path was volatile. Yields dipped last Wednesday after tame consumer inflation data and dovish remarks from Fed officials, then bounced last Thursday on hot producer price data. The 10-year Treasury yield ended up 4 basis points, while the 30-year moved closer to 5%, widening the long bond/five-year spread to multi-year highs. Bond traders are now eyeing this week’s Jackson Hole Fed symposium for signals from Chair Jerome Powell on the rate path.
Commodities:
The Bloomberg Commodities Index slipped 0.3%.
Oil: WTI crude drifted lower, pressured by concerns that supply is outpacing demand and by uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. Traders are also waiting on ceasefire talks between Presidents Trump and Putin.
Gold: Fell as investors rotated into riskier assets on easing trade and geopolitical tensions.
Currencies:
The U.S. dollar weakened, weighed by dovish Fed bets.
EUR/USD: +0.50%
GBP/USD: +0.75%
USD/JPY: -0.36%
U.S. Economic Recap (August 10 - August16, 2025)
Retail Sales Mixed, Autos in Focus
Retail sales rose 3.9% YoY in July, outpacing inflation.
Core “control group” sales, which feed into GDP, rose 0.5%, signaling recession risks remain limited.
Restaurant sales fell 0.4% MoM, though still up 5.9% YoY.
Clothing sales surged 7.4% YoY, boosted in part by tariff effects.
Auto sales rebounded from May’s dip but remain below March/April levels.
Takeaway: Weak spots in discretionary spending suggest the Fed should lean toward rate cuts, but consumer activity remains solid overall.
Inflation – Stagflation-lite?
Headline annual inflation steady at 2.7%, but core inflation rose to 3.1%.
Shelter costs climbed 0.2% MoM; medical services hit their highest since 2022.
Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, the fastest since 2022.
The negative CPI–PPI spread (–0.6%) signals producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices, which could squeeze corporate margins. This mix of sticky inflation and slowing growth is what we call “stagflation-lite.”
Global Markets Recap (August 10 - August 16, 2025)
Europe:
Eurozone GDP met expectations, keeping growth steady.
U.K. markets underperformed as weak employment data highlighted labour pressures. The Treasury is reportedly exploring inheritance tax changes to fill fiscal gaps.
Asia:
Japan’s Nikkei and Topix hit record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and upbeat growth data.
South Korea and Taiwan benefited from easing trade concerns, while Mainland China advanced on liquidity support despite lackluster macro releases.
Crypto Recap (August 10 - August 16, 2025)
Crypto markets ended higher, but with sharp divergences across tokens.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Weekly: +0.94%
ETFs: +$547.8M inflows
BTC.D: 59.8%
Hit a new all-time high at $124K (Aug 14) before reversing to $117K after hot PPI data triggered nearly $1B in liquidations in 24 hours.
Despite volatility, steady ETF inflows and dovish Fed expectations kept BTC supported. Analysts eye $125K as the breakout trigger toward $150K.
Ethereum (ETH):
Weekly: +5.82%
ETFs: +$2.85B inflows
Rallied to $4,787 (on Aug 14), close to its all-time high.
Pullback to $4,415 on profit-taking and whale activity, but year-end targets were lifted to $7,500 by Standard Chartered.
LINK, SOL, XRP, LTC, and SUI logged mid-to-high teens gains.
Last Week’s Top Gainers: OKB (OKB), Mantle (MNT), Chainlink (LINK), Aerodrome Finance (AERO).
Here are other key highlights from last week:
Tether and Rumble bet on AI with $1.17B Northern Data acquisition.
Crypto debanking is ‘still occurring’ as banks stick to Chokepoint policies.
ARK Invest scooped $172M in Bullish shares as stock soars 84% on debut.
Grayscale launched two trusts linked to Sui ecosystem protocols.
Axie Infinity creator Ronin network coming back to Ethereum as L2.
This week’s focus is the Jackson Hole Symposium!
Here’s what happened so far:
Building Permits (Tues.) - lower than expected
Housing Starts (Tues.) - much higher than expected
Key U.S. Economic Releases remaining this week:
Fed FOMC Minutes (Wed.)
Jobless Claims (Thurs.)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thurs.)
Services PMI (Thurs.)
Manufacturing PMI (Thurs.)
Existing Home Sales (Thurs.)
Fed Watch
Bowman (Tues. 2:10 PM)
Waller (Wed. 11:00 AM)
Bostic (Wed. 3:00 PM, Thurs. 7:30 AM)
Powell (Fri. 10:00 AM, Jackson Hole keynote
Earnings:
Reported so far:
Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Beat estimates, strong growth in remaining performance obligations.
Home Depot (HD): Missed earnings for a second straight quarter but maintained guidance.
Still ahead: Walmart (WMT, expected strong) and Target (TGT, expected weak).
Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:
Tip:
The 4% Rule Enhancement: Traditional retirement planning suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio annually. With dividend-growing stocks yielding 3-4%, you can potentially live off dividends alone without touching principal, giving you a larger inheritance to pass on or a buffer for unexpected expenses.
Week 8/10/25 - 8/16/25 Recap
Special Tools and Strategies - Kaito AI
Kaito: The AI Platform Helping You Find the Next Big Crypto Project
Last week (Issue #145) I discussed mindshare in crypto and how you can use it to spot profitable projects. Those were the “what” and “how”. This week, let’s talk more about the “where.” Where can you go to find the information?
One search platform is Kaito. A platform designed to simplify your search and even reward you with points just for participating. Also, if the idea of digging into all this feels like too much work, there’s another option: you can invest in Kaito’s token itself (after doing your own research, of course).
What is Kaito?
Kaito AI, founded in 2022 by Yu Hu, is a Web3 information platform powered by artificial intelligence. Think of it as a librarian for the crypto space that organizes thousands of scattered sources into one place, so you don’t have to spend hours bouncing between Twitter threads, Discord chats, podcasts, and white papers. Its mission is simple: make crypto information easier to access, easier to understand, and fairer for both creators and users.
The Core Problems and Kaito’s Solutions
The crypto world is overflowing with information, and most people drown in it. Kaito addresses three specific issues:
Information Fragmentation: News, analysis, and debates are scattered across countless platforms. Kaito indexes thousands of these sources and consolidates them into a single hub.
Information Overload: Even when you find the data, it’s hard to separate the signal from the noise. Kaito uses AI to summarize, extract key insights, and filter out trivial chatter.
Unfair Attention Economy: Content creators often generate valuable insights but rarely get rewarded fairly. Kaito introduces a system called InfoFi (Information Finance) to reward both attention and contributions in a transparent way.
Kaito’s Key Products
Kaito offers three major products that address different needs:
Kaito Pro: An AI-powered crypto search engine. It comes with features like MetaSearch, Sentiment Analytics, Smart Alerts, Dashboards, and a Catalyst Calendar. Traders can track Token Mindshare and Narrative Mindshare to see what projects and ideas are gaining traction. Imagine being able to spot a narrative like “real world assets” before it dominates headlines, that’s the edge Kaito aims to give.
Kaito Yaps: This is where attention meets rewards. Yaps measure the quality of content shared by users on platforms like X (formerly Twitter). Posting valuable insights, getting meaningful engagement, and building reputation earn you Yap Points. Unlike vanity metrics such as likes or retweets, Yaps prioritize depth, originality, and interaction from credible accounts.
Kaito Connect: This is the bridge between creators, users, and brands. It ensures creators are paid fairly, users are incentivized to contribute, and brands can reach the right audience transparently. It’s a cleaner, more honest version of today’s influencer economy.
How to Earn Yap Points
Kaito’s Yap system doesn’t just count clicks. Instead, it looks at:
Content Semantics: Is your post original, relevant, and insightful?
Interaction Quality: Are credible accounts engaging with it, not just bots or low-quality followers?
Consistency: Are you consistently posting thoughtful content?
Proof of Exchange: Did your content spark meaningful discussions or add unique perspectives?
By combining these factors, Kaito rewards substance over noise. You can climb leaderboards, gain visibility, and eventually exchange Yap Points for ecosystem rewards.
Kaito’s Ecosystem and Tokenomics
At the heart of the platform is the $KAITO token. It serves as the primary medium of exchange, governance tool, and reward mechanism within the ecosystem.
Distribution: Over 50 percent of tokens are reserved for the community. This covers ecosystem growth, early community claims, and ongoing incentives.
Utility: Beyond governance, tokens support ecosystem activity and reward participants.
This balance ensures Kaito isn’t just a top-down company project but a community-driven network.
Use Cases for Different Levels of Crypto Users
Here’s how traders and investors at different experience levels can use Kaito:
Beginners:
Discover trending topics with Narrative Mindshare.
Use Sentiment Trackers to understand if the market mood is bullish or bearish.
Explore Token Mindshare to see which projects are capturing attention.
Rely on the AI Copilot to explain complex crypto jargon in simple terms.
Intermediate Traders:
Spot emerging narratives before they go mainstream.
Track Catalyst Calendars to anticipate events like protocol upgrades or token launches.
Create custom dashboards to focus on specific strategies or niches.
Share insights on Yaps to earn recognition and rewards.
Advanced Users:
Use MetaSearch for deep research, combining keywords and events across sources.
Integrate Kaito data directly into trading models via its API.
Analyze “smart follower” behavior to track where influential accounts are placing their attention.
Study how narratives evolve over time to anticipate long-term market shifts.
Why Kaito Matters
Kaito platform is designed to help you filter through the noise, reward real contributions, and track where attention/opportunity is flowing.
Projects that gained early traction through strong mindshare such as Solana, Chainlink, and my favourite, Polygon, show how powerful it is to be ahead of the narrative curve. With Kaito, traders of all levels can sharpen their edge by understanding sentiment shifts, spotting catalysts, or by building their reputation in the crypto space.
So, if you want to dive in and use the platform yourself, or simply invest in the ecosystem token, Kaito offers a way to participate in the growing market of information finance. And if this feels like a lot to digest, that’s where one-on-one consultation services can make a difference by helping you interpret the insights and put them into action.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.