Hi There!

If you’ve ever stared at a red portfolio like it just ruined your life, this is for you.

In my years of hosting webinars and sessions for traders and investors, I’ve noticed their desperate need to be right every single time.

I see it in their eyes when a trade goes south. They have that look of total devastation, as if a single loss signals the end of the world. I don't judge them, because I have been there. I know that hollow feeling in the pit of the stomach. From my experience, I’ve realized that the very thing most people spend their lives outrunning is actually the secret ingredient to their success.

In my sessions, I start with the following: You are going to lose. Every consistently profitable trader and investor you admire has a portfolio marked by "Ls." The difference between those who stay stuck and those who foster growth isn’t the absence of failure; it’s what they do when failure finds them. Most people try to avoid the sting of a loss, and in doing so, they freeze. They never grow because they never risk the lesson.

We cannot outrun failure. However, we can choose to fail forward. Every obstacle, red candle, and miscalculation carries a key piece of data. This means that every failure has a lesson that, if noted well, becomes the foundation for the next big win. Our success isn't waiting for us at the end of a perfect, "loss-free" road; it is being built right now, and right in the middle of our failures.

As we prepare for a new year, I challenge you to change your relationship with the "L." Don’t fear the losses. They aren't there to stop you; they are there to set you up.

Keep moving, keep learning, and remember that the only true defeat is refusing to get back up.

Alright, let’s dig in!

Last week was a clean split between calm and chaos in the markets. Early sessions were muted as markets waited on the December Fed decision, then the second half of the week flipped fast. The S&P 500 tagged a fresh all time high last Thursday, then last Friday’s selloff erased the week’s gains as investors hit the brakes on the AI trade. The Dow held up, but the tech heavy indexes did not, and the leadership rotation theme got louder.

Two big forces drove the mood shift: a valuation reality check in AI linked names and a rate cut that still left investors debating how much easing comes next.

U.S. Markets Recap (December 7 - December 13, 2025)

Equities:

Last week, major U.S. indexes diverged sharply: Dow +1.0%, S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -1.6%. The key story was tech giving back ground into this past weekend. Broadcom (AVGO) fell 11% last Friday, and Oracle (ORCL) extended losses, pulling the broader tech complex lower.

Under the surface, this was not “AI is dead.” It was “AI expectations got priced like a straight line.” Broadcom’s weaker than expected AI outlook raised questions about demand pace and profitability, while Oracle faced pressure tied to rising capex and delays connected to some OpenAI related data center projects. The combination forced investors to reassess valuations that were built on strong operating leverage and free cash flow assumptions.

The encouraging part for the rest of the market is what happened before last Friday’s flush, namely, last Thursday’s strength came from rotation into cyclical pockets after dented AI sentiment. If the rotation continues, market leadership can broaden beyond mega cap tech, which usually creates a healthier tape over time.

Also, consumer tone showed up in corporate commentary. JPMorgan raised 2026 expense forecasts and flagged consumers as “fragile,” while Home Depot offered underwhelming FY 2026 guidance.

Fixed Income:

Core bonds, via the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower as yields faced upward pressure despite a Fed day that was “less hawkish than feared.” The Treasury curve steepened modestly:

• 1Y: 3.52% (-7 b.p.)

• 10Y: 4.18% (+4 b.p.)

• 30Y: 4.84% (+5 b.p.)

Markets also digested the Fed’s plan to buy about $40B in T bills over the next 30 days, with the pace expected to slow afterward. This is being framed as reserve management to keep short term funding markets stable, not a traditional QE style program. The practical takeaway for traders: added liquidity support tends to reduce the odds of ugly short term funding stress, even if long term rates still move on growth and inflation expectations.

Commodities:

Commodities were mostly lower last week, with energy weakness and precious metals strength.

• WTI crude fell below $58/barrel as the geopolitical risk premium narrowed on efforts tied to ending the war in Ukraine, while a supply overhang remains in the background.

• Gold rallied back near $4,300/oz following the Fed rate reduction.

• Silver outperformed and stayed near record highs.

Currencies:

The dollar was on track for a 3rd straight weekly drop. The dollar index fell -0.6%.

Key pairs:

• EUR/USD: +0.83%

• GBP/USD: +0.31%

• USD/JPY: +0.30%

U.S. Economic Recap (December 7 - December 13, 2025)

The Fed delivered its 3rd straight rate cut, lowering the policy range to 3.50%–3.75%, but the bigger takeaway was division. Three officials dissented, highlighting growing disagreement about how much more easing is appropriate. Projections still point to just 1 cut in 2026 and 1 in 2027, even as the Fed raised its 2026 GDP outlook to 2.3% and lowered expected inflation to 2.4%. Markets remain more dovish, now pricing a 75.6% chance of another cut in January.

Economic data continue to signal cooling, not collapse. Job openings rose to 7.67M, but layoffs increased to 1.85M and the quits rate fell to its lowest level since May 2020. Inflation expectations stayed stable at 3.2% for 1Y and 3% for longer horizons, while 39% of households reported their financial situation has worsened, the highest share in 2 years.

Global Markets Recap (December 7 - December 13, 2025)

Europe:

Germany showed tentative stabilization, with factory orders up +1.5% m/m and industrial production +1.8% m/m in October, but exports to the U.S. fell -7.8% and long term demographic pressures remain a major drag.

France eased near term political risk after lawmakers approved the 2026 social security bill, tightening the French German yield spread to about 70 b.p., though full budget negotiations may stretch into January.

The UK remains fragile. GDP fell -0.1% in October for a second straight month, leaving the economy on the brink of a mild Q4 contraction.

Asia:

Japan’s economy contracted at a -2.3% annualized pace in Q3, strengthening the case for fiscal support even as markets still price a high probability of a BoJ rate hike.

China’s trade surplus surpassed $1T, driven by strong exports, but domestic weakness persists as producer prices stayed in deflation at -2.2%, highlighting the imbalance between external strength and internal demand.

Crypto Recap (December 7 - December 13, 2025)

Crypto was mixed but slightly higher in the majors: Bitcoin +1.1%, Ethereum +3.1%, supported by ETF inflows. Spot BTC ETFs took in $287M, and ETH funds saw $209M of inflows. The problem is the market structure: analysts note steady selling from larger holders has outweighed incremental inflows, so rallies keep running into supply.

Top crypto gainers (last week): M, MERL, ZEC, MNT

Here are other key highlights from last week

• Western Union inflation-resistant ‘stable cards’ now part of its stablecoin strategy.

• Japan planned major shift as crypto moves from payments to securities law.

• NFT winter deepened: Monthly sales hit lowest point of the year.

• Polygon (POL) sped up by 33% with Madhugiri Hardfork.

This week is heavily data-driven!!!

Key U.S. Economic News:

• NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Mon.)

• NAHB Housing Market Index (Tues.)

• ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tues.)

• Nonfarm Payrolls (Tues.)

• Unemployment Rate (Tues.)

• Average Hourly Earnings (Tues.)

• Retail Sales (Tues.)

• Services PMI (Tues.)

• Manufacturing PMI (Tues.)

• CPI Inflation (Thurs.)

• Jobless Claims (Thurs.)

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thurs.)

• Existing Home Sales (Fri.)

• Consumer Sentiment (Fri.)

• Inflation Expectations (Fri.)

Federal Reserve:

• FOMC Member Miran (Mon. 9:30AM and 11:00AM)

• FOMC Member Williams (Mon. 10:30AM and Wed 9:05AM)

• FOMC Member Waller (Wed. 8:15AM)

• FOMC Member Bostic (Wed. 12:30PM)

Earnings: 

Notable Earnings Releases are shown in the chart below.

Medium-to-High Impact Global Economic Events This Week:

Week 12/07/25 - 12/13/25 Recap

Special Tools & Strategies -Flexible Spending Account (FSA)

While doing some research recently, I came across statistics from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) that surprised me.

About half of the people with a Flexible Spending Account (FSA) lose money every year. On average, it works out to a bit over $400 per person.

The research indicated that it is not because they did anything wrong, but most times, they simply did not realize how the deadlines worked. So, money they set aside for doctor visits, prescriptions, or glasses disappears back into the system.

Let us make sure you are not one of them.

What Exactly Is an FSA?

A Flexible Spending Account, or FSA, is an employer sponsored account that helps you pay for certain health care or dependent care expenses using pre tax dollars.

Think of it like putting money aside in advance for things you already know life will throw at you like doctor visits, dental cleanings, contacts, and child care. The difference is, you are paying for those expenses before taxes take their cut.

Why People Use FSAs

The main benefit is the tax savings.

Money that goes into your FSA comes out of your paycheck before federal income taxes, Social Security, and Medicare are calculated. This makes your taxable income a little smaller.

If your combined tax rate is around 25%, every $100 you put into an FSA saves you about $25 in taxes. Think of it like getting a small discount on expenses you were going to pay anyway.

How Enrollment Works

FSAs are usually offered through your job during open enrollment, often toward the end of the year. You can also enroll if you have a qualifying life event such as marriage, divorce, or having a baby.

Once you choose how much to contribute for the year, that amount is generally locked in. So a bit of planning upfront goes a long way.

The December Deadline You Cannot Ignore

Most FSAs run on a calendar year. Meaning, December 31st is the deadline to use the money.

Some plans offer a little grace. Your plan may allow a short grace period into March or let you carry over a limited amount into the next year. Others are strict. Use it, or lose it.

Do not assume. Check your plan rules so there are no surprises.

What FSAs Usually Cover

This part surprises a lot of people.

FSAs typically cover copays, deductibles, dental work, eye exams, glasses, contacts, and prescriptions. Many over the counter items qualify too, including pain relievers, cold medicine, sunscreen, bandages, and menstrual care products.

Yes, even those.

A Simple End of Year Reset

If you still have money sitting in your FSA, now is the time to act.

Book that dental cleaning you have been postponing.

Replace old glasses or contacts.

Restock the medicine cabinet properly this time, not halfway (lol).

If you are unsure how to plan your FSA or how it fits into your bigger financial picture, that is a good sign you should not be figuring it out alone. These small decisions add up over time, and having someone walk through them with you can save both money and stress.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.