Hi There!

Yesterday’s input is not today’s input. I see so many of you pouring every ounce of your spirit into your work, only to feel like the ground is shifting beneath your feet. It’s an exhausting, heavy feeling to look at your business or your career and wonder why the magic formula that worked so perfectly five plus years ago has suddenly gone cold. If you’re tired of feeling like your best effort is somehow failing to move the needle, I want to offer you a bit of grace.

Being stuck isn’t a sign that you’ve lost your edge; in fact, it’s often a sign that you are over-qualified for your current mindset. We often grieve our lost momentum, remembering when profits came easy or jobs were landed with a single phone call. But the systems you built a decade ago were designed for the person you were then, likely an employee or a solo dreamer with fewer responsibilities. Today, you are a leader, a manager, and a being carrying ten years of wisdom, growth, and (let’s be real) a lot more on your plate. You are navigating a world pimped by an algorithm that didn't exist when you started. You simply cannot use yesterday’s map for today’s terrain.

To get those big, present-moment results, I have learnt that, we have to update the input:

We stay paralyzed because we crave certainty or fear failure, but the only thing guaranteed is that you have already evolved. Release the old habits that no longer serve who you’ve become. When you stop focusing on where you think you should be, you finally give yourself permission to be successful right where you are.

Last week, the markets stayed volatile as the Iran conflict kept oil elevated and inflation worries front and center. U.S. equities held up better than most, while bonds weakened on rising yields and pushed out rate cut expectations. Energy led again, semiconductors helped stabilize tech, and the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors favoured liquidity.

Equities:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished just over 1% lower last week, despite big intraday swings tied to Middle East headlines and crude prices. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively halted, forcing Gulf producers to cut production and keeping energy crunch fears alive. Emergency reserve releases did little to calm markets.

Two positives helped cushion the week:

Sector leadership stayed clear:

FedEx’s market value briefly surpassed UPS as investors rewarded cost cutting.

Fixed Income:

Core bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate) fell as yields rose and the curve flattened. Since the start of the Iran conflict, yields are higher by roughly 30 bps across the curve, and the 10- year minus 2-year spread is near its flattest level since last December.

Markets have now fully priced the next Fed cut in 2027, a major shift in expectations. Globally, the bond selloff reflects tighter central bank pricing too, with markets leaning toward nearly two ECB hikes and almost one BoE hike this year.

The front end selloff likely has limits because it is unlikely the Fed restarts hikes this year. The more realistic path is delayed cuts, while longer maturities can drift higher on term premium and uncertainty.

Commodities:

Commodities were higher, led by oil again. The Strait of Hormuz disruption kept upward pressure on WTI and Brent even with an emergency release of 400 million barrels and U.S. plans for protection and insurance support. The market remained focused on timing and execution risk, plus production cuts caused by storage filling and ongoing strikes. Gold fell as rate cut expectations faded.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors stayed in safe haven liquidity mode with no clear off ramp for the conflict.

The Fed is stuck between sticky inflation and softer growth. Core inflation accelerated to 3.1% in January from 3.0%, and expect further acceleration next month. Meanwhile, Q4 growth was revised down to 0.7%, complicating policy decisions.

Inflation pressure remained under the surface, and the Middle East war added another inflation risk layer. Expect meaningful revisions in this week’s Summary of Economic Projections as the Fed highlights uncertainty on both sides of its mandate.

Europe finished lower as stagflation fears dominated with a combination of inflation risk plus growth jitters. ECB rhetoric turned firmer, with Peter Kazimir warning hikes may be closer than expected. Banks were a drag after Deutsche Bank flagged $30B private credit exposure.

Asia was mostly lower too as higher oil and a stronger dollar pressured sentiment. Japan weakened on bank shares and credit concerns, Korea stayed volatile with chip and AI names, Taiwan held up with a modest loss, and mainland China was the relative bright spot, helped by Tencent’s new AI agent launch.

Top crypto gainers (last week): RIVER, FET, TAO, RENDER, TRUMP

Key U.S. economic releases (March 16-20):

Fed Speakers :

Powell speaks (Wed 2:30 PM ET)

Notable earnings releases are outlined in red below.

If checking your retirement portfolio lately has felt painful, you are not alone. A lot of people have looked at recent market swings and quietly asked the same question, Could this hurt my retirement plan?

Wall Street calls this kind of worry sequence of returns risk.

Sequence of returns risk is the danger that the market drops early in retirement, right when you start pulling money out for living expenses. The timing matters because withdrawals can lock in losses. Even if the market rebounds later, your portfolio may not recover the same way it would have if the downturn happened years later.

In your working years, the order of returns matters less because you are adding money, not living on it. In retirement, the order becomes critical because you are taking money out while the account is moving up and down.

Think of your portfolio like a bucket of water you need to last the rest of your life. During retirement, you scoop water out every year. If the bucket springs a leak early, the water level drops fast. If you keep scooping during the leak, you have less water left to benefit when the leak gets fixed. This is the heart of sequence risk, which means, selling shares when they are down means those shares are gone forever.

To see it clearly, compare two retirees: Investor A and Investor B.

Both start with $1,000,000, withdraw $50,000 per year, and earn an average annual return of 7% over 3 years. The only difference is the order of returns.

The results:

This leaves is a $143,000 gap in just three years, with the same average return.

You do not need to trade. You need a plan.

Some questions for your financial advisor:

Having a clear understanding of this term matters because it eliminates the panic. Sequence risk is not just a trader problem. If you plan to live off your investments, it is a real life problem. The sooner you plan for it, the less you will worry in times like these.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is strictly educational. The information this report provides does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. Please be careful and do your research.